Policies that shape America's future

DNHN - The re-election of Donald Trump as US President will begin a major turning point in trade policy, deeply affecting global trade.

Results of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

According to PBS News, citing Open Secrets data as of November 5, 2024, a total of $5.5 billion was spent by presidential candidates, political parties, and independent interest groups on federal election campaigns.

Forbes reported that at least 135 members of the "Three Comma Club" (individuals with a net worth exceeding $1 billion) supported candidates in the 2024 election. Of these, 83 billionaires backed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, including Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, Laurene Powell Jobs, and Melinda French Gates. Meanwhile, 52 billionaires supported Republican candidate Donald Trump, notably Elon Musk and Timothy Mellon.

Donald Trump broke his own record as the wealthiest presidential candidate in U.S. history, with his net worth surging to over $8 billion in October 2024 due to a sharp rise in the stock price of his social media company, Truth Social. Although the stock later cooled and his net worth fell below $6 billion, it still dwarfed Harris's net worth, which was only 0.1% of Trump's.

Election Results

On November 6, 2024, Donald Trump won 76,818,362 popular votes (50% of the total votes) compared to Kamala Harris's 74,308,711 votes (48.4%). Trump also secured 312 Electoral College votes, surpassing the required 270, while Harris garnered 226 votes.

As a result, Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States and is set to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C.

Republican Party Success

In addition to Trump's victory, the Republican Party gained control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives:

Senate: 53 Republican seats to 47 Democratic seats (51 seats are needed for a majority).

House: 219 Republican seats to 213 Democratic seats (218 seats are needed for a majority).

This sweeping Republican victory will likely facilitate the implementation of Trump's campaign promises and legislative agenda.

Key Policies for Donald Trump's 2025–2029 Term

Tax Cuts

Trump plans to reduce corporate taxes to stimulate domestic business activities. He also proposed eliminating federal taxes on tips and certain Social Security benefits. These proposals contributed to a stock market surge post-election, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 3.57% to 43,729.93 points on November 6, 2024. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices also recorded significant gains.

Economists predict that these tax cuts, if passed by Congress, could accelerate economic growth in 2026 and 2027.

Tariffs

Trump aims to offset domestic tax cuts by imposing tariffs of 10–20% on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese imports. These tariffs are designed to encourage American manufacturing and job creation. However, they may also lead to higher costs for businesses and consumers, increased inflation, and potential retaliatory measures from trade partners.

Immigration

Trump plans a large-scale crackdown on illegal immigration, with proposals to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants and restrict legal immigration. He has appointed Thomas D. Homan, a former ICE Director, to oversee this effort. Analysts warn that such measures could exacerbate labor shortages in low-skilled jobs, potentially slowing economic growth.

Government Debt

As of November 2024, U.S. national debt exceeds $36 trillion. Trump's proposed fiscal policies, including tax cuts and tariffs, could further increase federal deficits, adding an estimated $7.75 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. This could lead to higher bond yields and mortgage rates.

Cryptocurrency

Trump has expressed support for cryptocurrencies, proposing a "National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" and aiming to establish the U.S. as a global leader in digital assets.

Foreign Policy

Ukraine-Russia: Trump has pledged to end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy both expressing willingness to engage in discussions.

Middle East Peace: Trump intends to expand the Abraham Accords, promoting normalization between Israel and other Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia.

Federal Reserve

With inflation cooling, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5–4.75% on November 7, 2024. Trump, who often criticized the Fed during his first term, may seek to influence its leadership after Jerome Powell’s term ends in 2026.

Sources: Financial Times, PBS News, Forbes.