Vietnamese enterprises at a crossroads: the impact of a potential US–China deal

DNHN - As the world closely monitors every shift in US-China relations, emerging signals of a strategic agreement between the two global powers are raising hopes for global economic stability.

Yet for Vietnam, positioned between the world’s two largest production and consumption centers, a more pressing question looms: will this "handshake" open doors or create new pressures for Vietnamese businesses?

Over the past five years, US-China tensions have reshaped global trade flows: supply chains were disrupted, investment redirected, and Vietnam emerged as a "replacement hub" under the China+1 strategy. Now, as Washington and Beijing begin to "rebuild trust" through multiple channels of dialogue on trade, technology, and climate, the world is not only witnessing a de-escalation but also the beginning of a new, deeper, and more complex cycle of supply chain restructuring. Should the two powers reach an agreement on tariffs, tech standards, and capital flows, Vietnam could move from being a passive beneficiary of the trade war to becoming a vital intermediary in the post-conflict global production order.

Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh: "When major powers recalibrate, Vietnam must assert its proactive position in the game."

In an interview with Doanh nghiep & Hoi nhap magazine, Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and a current policy advisor to the Prime Minister (under Decision 1664/QD-TTg dated August 4, 2025), emphasized:

"Every shift in US-China relations has ripple effects across the region. Vietnam must avoid being drawn into either orbit and instead choose a strategic position of cooperation with autonomy. If a deal is reached, we must act swiftly to upgrade our value chains and reaffirm our role as a reliable intermediary in the region."

A successful US-China deal could stabilize global trade, reduce logistics costs, and revive investment flows. In such a scenario, Vietnam could benefit greatly from its strategic status as the "gateway to ASEAN," attracting more FDI from the US, China, and Europe.

On the flip side, a new production order could also see supply chains shifting back to China if trust is restored. In that case, Vietnamese firms limited to low-cost assembly may be phased out. The real opportunity lies not in being "chosen as a substitute," but in becoming a long-term value chain partner.

The primary challenge for Vietnamese companies will no longer be about having orders, but whether they possess the technological capabilities, governance standards, and supply chain resilience to thrive in a new world order shaped by both US-China rivalry and cooperation.

Reconnecting supply chains: Vietnam at a strategic crossroads

A scholar from Harvard Kennedy School observes: "If the trade war was an era of decoupling, then the upcoming US-China deal marks the era of selective reconnection."

This suggests that while production may partially return to China, it will also spread to stable and trusted economies with proven manufacturing capacity, with Vietnam seen as one of the most viable landing points for global corporations.

Key sectors likely to benefit include electronics, green energy equipment, logistics, and high-tech supporting industries, all areas that both the US and China seek to strengthen beyond their borders.

However, as many experts caution, "This opportunity is only real if Vietnam meets the standards to be chosen." In this new environment, quality, traceability, and international compliance will be the new passport, not cheap labor.

Two Scenarios for Two Superpowers: A strategic call to action for Vietnam

If US-China relations yield a substantive deal, Vietnam will enter a phase of "orderly supply chain restructuring," with investments and trade redirected along more stable routes. Vietnamese businesses must then shift from contract manufacturing to becoming strategic partners by investing in traceability, green transformation, ESG standards, and technological innovation. The government, in turn, must update legal frameworks, upgrade logistics infrastructure, and develop high-quality human resources to capture the wave of global capital flowing into Southeast Asia.

Conversely, if the agreement proves temporary or collapses, tensions could reignite—placing Vietnamese firms in a double-edged situation: gaining short-term from production shifts, but facing political risks, tariffs, and supply chain disruptions. In this case, Vietnam must diversify markets, deepen ties with the EU, India, and the Middle East, and leverage FTAs to reduce dependency on the world’s two economic poles.

In all scenarios, Vietnamese businesses must stay ahead of the curve, not merely "riding the wave" but creating it through innovation, digitization, and global collaboration. When the superpowers shake hands, the nations that seize the moment will not just benefit—they will co-create the new global order. This is Vietnam's moment to assert itself as an independent, proactive, and resilient economy amid a volatile world.

By Dr. Nguyễn Thúy Lan

Vietnamese version: https://doanhnghiephoinhap.vn/neu-my-trung-quoc-dat-duoc-thoa-thuan-thi-doanh-nghiep-viet-nam-duoc-huong-loi-gi-120075.html