Multiple Factors Impact Coffee Export Prices

DNHN - Strong selling from Brazil, coupled with a weaker Real, has encouraged increased coffee exports from the country. Strong growth in Vietnamese Robusta coffee exports in January 2024 is also putting pressure on the market.

According to the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV), coffee prices saw a decline in the trading week from 19th to 25th February, with Arabica down 3.43% and Robusta down 3.53%. This decline is attributed to many factors, including improving supply and the impact of currency differentials.

According to the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil increased its coffee exports in the first three weeks of February compared to the same period last year. The supply outlook is also positive, with consultancy StoneX forecasting Brazil’s 2024 coffee crop to rise to 67 million bags, and the Cooxupe cooperative expecting production in Minas Gerais to increase.

Strong selling from Brazil, coupled with a weaker Real, has encouraged increased coffee exports from the country. Strong growth in Vietnamese Robusta coffee exports in January 2024 is also putting pressure on the market.

Experts highlight that restocking demand, coupled with anticipated supply tightness, is likely to support coffee prices going forward. This is further supported by the EU regulation requiring coffee to meet deforestation-free criteria, which is expected to favour Vietnamese supplies in the market.

The Vietnamese coffee sector has had a positive start to 2024, with continued strong exports to key markets such as the European Union (EU) and the US, along with notable growth in new markets such as Russia and Indonesia.

Of particular note, coffee exports to the EU accounted for a large proportion of Vietnam’s total exports, with impressive growth compared to the same period last year. Notably, coffee exports to Italy and Spain saw strong increases, while there was only a slight decrease in exports to Germany.

Coffee exports to the US also increased, along with notable surges in exports to Russia and Indonesia, where volumes increased by several hundred per cent compared to the same period last year. This demonstrates the diversification and market expansion of the Vietnamese coffee sector.

Despite declines in some markets such as Japan, Algeria and South Korea, overall, Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first month of 2024 showed positive growth and market diversification, contributing positively to the country’s agricultural sector and economy.

P.V