UOB raises Vietnam's economic growth forecast in 2022 to 7.04%

DNHN - According to UOB, Vietnam's real GDP growth was surprising when it reached 7.7% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the same period last year and exceeded the forecast of 5.9% from research organizations (average between 4.5-6.5%).

UOB has just released a report assessing GDP growth in the second quarter and forecast for the last 6 months of 2022 of the Vietnamese economy. In particular, this financial institution has raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2022 from 6.5% to 7.04%. UOB becomes the financial institution that gives the highest growth forecast for the Vietnamese economy this year.

Specifically, UOB said that Vietnam's real GDP growth was surprising when it reached 7.7% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the same period last year and exceeded the forecast of 5.9% from research organizations (average between 4.5-6.5%).

Strong GDP growth in the second quarter was driven by manufacturing activity increasing for the fourth consecutive quarter and the recovery in services activity gradually regaining momentum since the last decline in the third quarter of 2021.

Thus, the overall GDP growth in the first half of this year was 6.4%, the main driver was the 9.7% increase in the manufacturing sector and 6.6% in the service activities.

According to UOB, the retail sector has benefited greatly from the easing of restrictions and has maintained its upward momentum for the sixth consecutive month. In particular, travel-related expenditures increased by 94.4% in the first 6 months, compared to an increase of 34.7% in the previous 5 months.

Exports also recorded a sixth consecutive month of growth with an increase of 17.3% while imports increased by 15.8% with a cumulative surplus of $907 million.

In terms of foreign direct investment (FDI), about 10.1 billion USD was disbursed in the first half of this year, up nearly 9% over the same period. With this increase, UOB forecasts that this year's disbursed FDI may exceed 19.7 billion USD recorded in 2021.

UOB also assessed that Vietnam's risk of increasing inflation this year is still significant due to the rapid increase in energy prices, which is expected to affect the rest of the economy.

Based on the strong growth results in the second quarter and historical data showing that the growth results in the second half of the year are generally positive, UOB analysts anticipate that Vietnam's GDP growth in the second half of the year will reach about approximately 7.6-7.8%, bringing full-year growth to 7.04% (previous forecast of 6.5%).

PV