US tariffs on Brazil propel Vietnam’s pangasius into global spotlight

DNHN - Vietnam’s pangasius industry eyes $2 billion worth of exports in 2025 amid shifting US trade policy and a global supply realignment.

Amid newly imposed US tariffs of up to 50 per cent on Brazilian imports, many American whitefish importers are turning to Vietnam’s pangasius (catfish) as a practical alternative to Brazilian tilapia. This market shift presents a significant opportunity for Vietnam to expand its share in the highly competitive global seafood industry.

Despite global trade uncertainties and rising tariff pressures, Vietnam’s pangasius exports are demonstrating robust recovery. According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), citing data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs under the Ministry of Finance, Vietnam recorded $194 million in pangasius exports in June—marking a 13 per cent year-on-year increase. Total export turnover for the first half of 2025 reached $1.023 billion, up 11 per cent compared to the same period in 2024.

Notably, products under HS code 03—comprising fresh, chilled, and frozen fish—contributed 98 per cent of total export revenue, amounting to $997 million, an 11 per cent rise year-on-year. Frozen fillets (HS0304) continued to dominate, bringing in $821 million, which also represents an 11 per cent increase and over 80 per cent of HS03’s total.

With global sourcing patterns shifting and US buyers seeking reliable suppliers, Vietnam’s pangasius sector is strategically positioning itself as a stable and cost-effective player in the whitefish market.

Market trends: Mixed signals across regions

China and Hong Kong (China) remain Vietnam’s largest export destinations for pangasius, though both markets experienced contraction in the first half of 2025. In June, combined exports to these regions reached $53 million, down 4 per cent compared to June 2024. Cumulative exports stood at $249 million for H1, reflecting a similar 4 per cent decline year-on-year.

Conversely, the US market saw a significant rebound in demand. In June 2025, exports to the US hit $34 million, up 23 per cent from the same month in 2024. Total exports to the US during H1 reached $175 million, an increase of 10 per cent year-on-year. Of particular note were value-added pangasius products under HS code 16, which brought in $26 million—soaring 48 per cent—as US buyers rushed to secure inventory before new tariffs took effect.

However, VASEP clarified that much of this growth was driven by FOB/CIF contracts signed earlier in 2025, before the US announced its intention to apply reciprocal tariffs on select seafood items. In response to this evolving trade environment, Vietnamese exporters have increasingly pivoted toward high-value, deep-processed offerings to increase returns and reduce tariff exposure.

Brazil is also emerging as a promising new market for pangasius. Exports to Brazil surged to $16 million in June—an astounding 111 per cent increase year-on-year. H1 exports totaled $175 million, up 10 per cent compared to the same period in 2024.

At the Vietnam Business Forum in Brasilia on July 5, Nam Viet Corporation (NAVICO) signed a strategic seafood partnership with Brazil’s AV09 Comercio Exporter Ltda. NAVICO previously spearheaded Vietnam’s inaugural official shipment of pangasius, basa, and tilapia to Brazil—a milestone in bilateral agri-trade. Both countries are currently expediting negotiations on a Vietnam–Mercosur free trade agreement and advancing frameworks for investment, visas, and flight connectivity.

In the EU market, exports in June declined 15 per cent year-on-year to $13 million. Nonetheless, H1 exports posted a slight 5 per cent increase, totaling $90 million. The Netherlands continued to lead among EU importers, purchasing $26 million worth of pangasius in H1 2025, an 11 per cent rise. Market demand is gradually recovering, particularly for sustainably certified, traceable products.

VASEP projects that, buoyed by strong early-year momentum, Vietnam’s pangasius industry may be on track to regain the $2 billion export milestone by the end of 2025. Still, the Association warns of persistent headwinds, including intensifying technical barriers, increasing protectionism, and volatility in logistics costs.

Sourcing shifts bolster Vietnam’s role

On August 1 (Vietnam time), the White House issued an Executive Order from President Donald Trump adjusting reciprocal tariffs. According to the new directive, the US reduced Vietnam’s tariff rate from a proposed 46 per cent to 20 per cent, covering 69 countries and territories listed in Annex I.

In preparation, Vietnamese exporters had already begun transitioning to high-quality, value-added products to enhance profitability and reduce the risks associated with potential price volatility.

Meanwhile, on July 30, President Trump signed another Executive Order imposing an additional 40 per cent tariff on Brazil—bringing the total to 50 per cent. Earlier that month, he had formally warned Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the impending action, set to begin on August 1, with possible expansion to seafood and other major export sectors.

According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Thu Hang, a pangasius market expert at VASEP, ITC data shows Brazil ranked fifth among whitefish suppliers to the US in 2024—trailing China, Vietnam, Iceland, and Colombia—with nearly $59 million in exports, primarily tilapia fillets (HS codes 030431, 030323, 030461). In the first five months of 2025 alone, Brazil exported over $32 million in tilapia to the US, up 62 per cent year-on-year.

Ms. Hang noted that with the 50 per cent tariff now in effect, average import prices for Brazilian tilapia could rise from $2.7–2.9 per kilo to over $4—high enough to push US importers to reevaluate their sourcing strategies. While the US has not confirmed which product categories are affected, whitefish, as a key segment of Brazil’s seafood exports, is highly likely to face new duties. In the short term, importers may defer shipments, adjust order volumes, or seek alternative suppliers if Brazil cannot quickly renegotiate or adjust pricing.

The tightening of US trade policy—amid a broader slowdown in globalization—is putting additional strain on Vietnamese exporters, who must now manage rising input costs, complex price negotiations, and shorter delivery windows. Nevertheless, Vietnam’s growing strength in processing and its shift from raw to processed exports places it in a favorable position to adapt quickly.

“If Brazil loses its price competitiveness due to the new tariffs, many US importers are expected to turn to alternative suppliers with stable supply chains and efficient production—Vietnam being a top candidate,” Ms. Hang affirmed.

The evolving US tariff policy is clearly reshaping the global whitefish landscape. Should Brazil falter, neither Iceland nor Colombia—given their limited output—are expected to fully fill the gap. In contrast, Vietnam is well-positioned to capture redirected demand, particularly in the deep-processed pangasius segment, despite Brazil’s overall whitefish exports to the US being modest compared to Vietnam’s.

To seize these shifting opportunities, VASEP advises pangasius exporters to reevaluate profit margins, shipping expenses, and contractual terms. The impact of the new tariffs will be immediate and direct—affecting exporters’ ability to win and maintain long-term supply deals.

Anh Nguyen