Many optimistic forecasts for Vietnam's economy

DNHN - Experts say that Vietnam has a solid premise to overcome the current global upheavals thanks to the stable political situation, consistent government, stable domestic currency, record-high foreign exchange reserves, and control inflation.

According to the assessment of economic experts from the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) updated on the regional economic outlook, Vietnam will grow by 6.3% this year and the inflation rate remained at 3.5%.

Mr Hoe Ee Khor, Senior Economist, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, commented: "We are optimistic about Vietnam's economic prospects. Vietnam is a much more open economy when direct contact with the US and Chinese economies. Regarding inflation, Vietnam is still well controlled with administrative measures to maintain the prices of essential commodities and fuel.

Experts say that Vietnam has a solid premise to overcome the current global upheavals thanks to the stable political situation, consistent government, stable domestic currency, record-high foreign exchange reserves, and control inflation.

Standard Chartered Bank also continues to maintain Vietnam's economic growth forecast at 6.7% in 2022 and 7% in 2023. This forecast is made in the global macroeconomic report released by the Bank titled “Global Focus-Economic Outlook Q3-2022: Near the tipping point”. March 2022: Near tipping point).

According to economists of Standard Chartered Bank, inflation in 2022 and 2023 in Vietnam is forecast to reach 4.2% and 5.5%, respectively. Inflation remains under control. Fuel prices increased while prices of other commodities in the inflation basket remained relatively low.

Price pressures, especially for food and fuel, are likely to increase in the second half of 2022 and into 2023. This will bring risks to the recovery of domestic consumption, which has only just begun for a short time. Rising inflation will spur the need to find investment channels that offer higher yields or increase the risk of financial instability.

Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that the State Bank of Vietnam will maintain the policy rate at 4% in 2022 and may normalize policy in the fourth quarter of 2023 with rate hikes by 50 basis points to 4.5%.

Linh Anh