Rice Exports Forecast to Remain Strong and Fetch Good Prices in 2024

DNHN - Looking at the market outlook for the end of the year and early 2024, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association Do Ha Nam predicts that the situation will continue to be favourable.

The latest data from the General Department of Customs shows that Vietnam's rice exports in the first 11 months of 2023 reached 7.8 million tons, with a total export value of 4.4 billion USD. This figure sets a record, the highest in the past 34 years, and is expected to continue to increase in the coming time. The Philippines remains the leading market for Vietnamese rice, accounting for about 35% of the export market share. In the first 11 months of 2023, the volume of rice exported to the Philippines reached 2.63 million tons, equivalent to 1.41 billion USD. Following closely behind are Indonesia, China, and several African countries.

The export price of Vietnamese rice has fluctuated quite a bit since 2021. Specifically, at the beginning of 2021, the rice price reached 550 USD/ton, but by mid-2022, it had dropped to nearly 460 USD/ton, then increased sharply in 2023. The highest export price was recorded in October 2023, reaching 640 USD/ton.

The proportion of high-quality rice varieties in Vietnam has increased from 50% in 2015 to 74% in 2020, and is currently at 85%. The export volume of rice has been maintained at 6 million tons and tends to increase over the years, with the export value continuously exceeding 3 billion USD each year.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Tran Thanh Nam said that Vietnam's main rice export product is still white rice, accounting for more than 60% of the market structure and bringing in more than 2.3 billion USD. Vietnamese rice is increasingly known to the world with its brand reputation. Notably, the import demand from countries will fluctuate. Some countries may decrease, such as Brazil, Egypt, Ghana, etc., but some other countries, including Vietnam's major partner - Indonesia, are expected to increase by about 600,000 tons.

Many experts also predict that global rice production could reach a record of nearly 520 million tons, while consumption will also be close to 525 million tons. As global stockpiles decline to just over 160 million tons, this presents a major opportunity for Vietnam's rice industry.

To build a sustainable rice value chain, it is necessary to organize the supply area, transfer the production process to farmers, and share the benefits from the value chain fairly, to stimulate long-term cooperation between enterprises and farmers. This is also a measure to ensure the quality and brand reputation of Vietnamese rice, as well as to maintain the export market.

Actively moving towards the trend of sustainable production transformation and green consumption in the world rice market, along with the increasingly high standard requirements from the import market, poses new challenges for enterprises. Mr Tran Thanh Nam, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, said that enterprises need to prioritize quality instead of focusing too much on productivity and output, as seen in the past.

Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association Do Ha Nam forecasts continued good conditions for the market at year's end and in the first part of 2024.

Therefore, Mr. Do Ha Nam proposed that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development continue to restructure the rice industry to improve quality and value, ensuring an increase in value rather than quantity.

Mr. Do Ha Nam also recommended that enterprises, cooperatives, and the farming community strongly cooperate in producing high-quality rice, promoting industry restructuring, and diversifying exported rice varieties, to meet Vietnam's Rice Export Market Development Strategy towards 2030.

Phu Van