VNDirect provides an optimistic outlook for the textile and apparel industry at the end of the year.

DNHN - Regarding the outlook for the textile industry by the end of 2023, the experts at VNDirect anticipate that the demand for upstream products will strengthen.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the textile industry's export value has decreased by 16.7% compared to the same period last year, reaching 21.5 billion USD after the first seven months of 2023. People's ability to consume is hampered by the deteriorating demand in major markets, high borrowing costs, and sluggish economic growth.

According to experts at VNDirect, there has been a discernible recovery in recent months. In particular, the industry's export value increased by 4.1% from June to July 2023, reaching 3.65 billion USD.

The export volume of textile fibres and yarns increased by 2.5% during the first seven months of 2023, reaching 988,300 tonnes, while the export value decreased by 19.9%, to 988,300 tonnes. 2,48 billion US dollars. This is because the price of input materials such as plastic chips and cotton fell in the highlands during the first half of 2022, resulting in lower selling prices.

In July 2023, however, the export volume of fibre reached 160,000 tonnes, up 6.7% over the same period and up 45.4% compared to June, indicating a recovery in consumer demand.

Regarding the outlook for the textile industry at the end of 2023, the experts at VNDirect anticipate that demand for products in the upstream segment will strengthen, particularly beginning in the third quarter of 2023 and continuing through the holiday season. In Q4/2023, it will be a short-term driver.

The demand for textile products typically increases at the end of the year to accommodate the holiday season and Tet. We anticipate that exports of upstream segment (fibre) products will increase significantly beginning in the third quarter of 2023.

Long-term, VNDirect forecasts that the three value chain segments will recover in the second half of 2023, supported by short- and medium-term factors. Since then, they have believed that the difficulties in the textile industry are gradually subsiding and that the fibre segment will be the first to demonstrate recovery.

However, VNDirect experts emphasised that polyester fibre manufacturers may continue to face challenges in the next quarter if the price of input materials such as plastic chips made from crude oil increases once more. After roughly three to four months, plastic raw materials typically exhibit an upward trend.

P.V (t/h)