Vietnam's economic expansion in 2023 may be weaker than previously anticipated.

DNHN - According to the "Vietnam Economic Annual Report 2023," Vietnam's economic growth in 2023 will be lower than many organizations’ previous projections.

The "Vietnam Economic Annual Report 2023" was just released on June 22 by the Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) - University of Economics (Hanoi National University), stating that the economic growth of Vietnam's economy in 2023 is lower than many organizations’ previous projections.

According to the report, the industrial and construction sector slowed significantly beginning in the third quarter of 2022, and in the first five months of 2023, the index of industrial production (IIP) declined by approximately 2% compared to the same period in the previous year. In contrast, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.55 percent during the same period in 2022. As a result of pressure from global inflation and rising input material prices, Vietnam's inflation remained elevated despite a trend toward moderation.

According to the report, Vietnam's macroeconomic stability for the remainder of 2023 is contingent upon a 4.54% increase in core inflation. In tandem with this, the exchange rate in Vietnam has fluctuated frequently. since the end of the third quarter of 2022, with a peak in November of that year.

Importing businesses increased their USD foreign exchange reserves to hedge against future exchange rate risks while exporting businesses increased their "holdings" of foreign currencies in anticipation of selling at higher prices.

In the low scenario, Vietnam's GDP will only grow by 5.5% in 2023. In the baseline scenario, the rate of GDP growth will be 6%. According to the optimistic scenario, the GDP growth rate in 2023 will reach 6.5%.

However, Vietnam's economy still has growth potential in 2023. Recent economic management policies demonstrate the government's commitment to bolstering the domestic economy. The increase in import and export conditions for many goods as a result of China's reopening; Opportunities from the wave of investment chain shifting and free trade agreements (FTAs) will continue to be the driving force for trade growth that will stimulate Vietnam's economy in the coming years.

Ngoc Phi (TH)