Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung The scenario of 6.5% growth in 2023 is very challenging

DNHN - The Minister of Planning and Investment reported at the Government-Local National Online Conference and the regular Government meeting in March 2023 that the target growth scenario for 2023 is 6.5%. The title is extremely difficult.

Minister Nguyen Chi Dung emphasized that, due to external influences, economic growth in the first quarter of 2023 was lower than anticipated and is facing numerous difficulties and challenges; potentially risky inflation; exports decline, the economy's ability to absorb capital is difficult, and macroeconomic management pressure increased.

In some instances, the coordination of several ministries and agencies to support the economy, production, and business is inefficient, time-consuming, and wasteful of resources.

However, Dung assessed, in the context of escalating challenges, particularly the unfavorable global economic situation, that global inflation remained elevated and global economic growth, particularly in large economies, remained robust. Despite a sharp decline, the first quarter of 2023 yielded generally positive results. Comparatively to the global and regional averages, first-quarter GDP expansion was quite robust.

The Ministry of Planning and Investment predicts two growth scenarios based on the results of the first quarter, the forecast for the second quarter, and the entire year.

Accordingly, in scenario 1, annual economic growth is projected to reach 6% (0.5 percentage points below the National Assembly's target), with growth in the second, third, and fourth quarters corresponding to the scenario in Resolution No. 01 (6.7%, 6.5%, and 7.0%, respectively).

If the growth rate in 2023 is only 6%, it will place significant pressure on the 5-year growth target for 2021-2025 (6.5-7%), necessitating a growth rate of nearly 8% in 2024-2025. /year to reach the 5-year goal of 6.5%.

In scenario 2, to achieve the target of 6.5% economic growth for the entire year, the second quarter economic growth is 6.7% (equivalent to the scenario of Resolution 01), and the third and fourth quarters grow respectively. 7.5 % and 7.9 % (1 percentage point and 0.8 percentage point higher, respectively, compared to the scenario in Resolution No. 01).

Currently, most of the policies to support businesses and people are under the Program on socio-economic recovery and development. Therefore, it is necessary to issue new support policies as soon as possible, such as reducing taxes and fees, etc., and continue to strive to reduce lending interest rates to stimulate growth and support production and business, according to the Ministry of Finance.

Quy Thu