In the last two quarters of the year, seafood exports to the US may increase by 40-50%

DNHN - According to VNDirect, the US market will likely recover strongly in the second half of 2023 due to a reduction in inflation, a decline in inventories, and a surge in demand during the holiday season.

According to the most recent report from VNDirect, the leading Vietnamese securities firm, the seafood export market to the United States has a positive growth outlook for the second half of 2023. Meanwhile, market demand for seafood increased. The EU is anticipated to remain stable, whereas exports to China are not anticipated to grow significantly.

According to VNDirect, the US market is projected to experience a robust recovery beginning in the second half of 2023. This is due to decreased inflation, decreased inventories, and increased demand during the holiday season. As a result of these factors, it is anticipated that Vietnam's seafood exports to the United States will increase by 40 to 50 percent compared to the first half of 2023.

VNDirect has observed the recovery of the U.S. market in May 2023, when the export price of pangasius is projected to rise and inflation falls. The US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 4.9% year-over-year in May, below market expectations and the lowest level in the past two years.

VNDirect forecasts that Vietnam's demand for pangasius on the EU market will remain stable in the second half of 2023. The reason is that inflation is still high in the EU and tensions between Russia and Ukraine have affected the availability of other white fish, such as pollock.

VNDirect believes that the second half of 2023 will not see a significant increase in seafood exports to China compared to the second half of 2023 due to China's unpredictable economic situation and fierce competition from other countries. beginning of the year. Particularly, Vietnam's shrimp products face stiff competition from Ecuador and India, two countries that excel at producing frozen, small, and inexpensive shrimp. China increased its purchases of shrimp from countries other than Vietnam during the first quarter of 2023, while decreasing its orders for shrimp products from Vietnam.

In addition, businesses have developed business plans for the second half of 2023 based on anticipated market conditions. The majority of businesses surveyed by VNDirect anticipate that revenue in 2023 will exceed or be comparable to revenue in 2022. However, profits are anticipated to decline significantly. Although businesses anticipate a decline in gross profit, the average selling price of their products may remain high due to inflation. In contrast, prawn exporters are more optimistic about their business performance in 2023, when both revenue and profit are anticipated to increase compared to the previous year.

PV (t/h)