The processing and manufacturing sector will grow positively until the beginning of 2024.

DNHN - The director of the Department of Industry and Construction Statistics stated that the processing and manufacturing industry will develop favourably by the beginning of 2024.

Regarding the developments of the processing and manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, Ms Phi Thi Huong Nga, Director of the Department of Industry and Construction Statistics, remarked, "The global context in the first nine months of the year has been relatively stable." Numerous developments are both complex and unpredictable. Specifically, major economies, including our principal trading and investment partners, face numerous challenges. In addition, the economy is not sustainable, and growth is low; consumer demand remains weak, and protection barriers are rising; many nations maintain stringent monetary policies; public debt and enterprise bad debt; and the financial and real estate markets continue to be rife with potential dangers.

Domestically, several mechanisms, policies, and solutions issued by the government, ministries, and departments in recent years have been centred on implementing and progressively promoting their effectiveness, thereby strengthening market psychology. Helps businesses and investors improve their production and business operations in part. We can mention policies such as: reducing lending interest rates; deploying credit packages to support a variety of industries and fields; exemption, reduction, and extension of taxes, fees, and land use fees; and encouraging the distribution of public investment capital in particular. Promote regional connectivity and attract investment. In recent years, numerous large-scale projects have been initiated, accelerated, and implemented, creating new development space for localities and the nation as a whole, thereby contributing to the creation of a driving force for economic expansion.

However, Vietnam's economy is highly open in this global context, so the impact of external difficulties also affects demand, causing Vietnam's export orders to decline over time. via.

In general, the industrial situation in the first nine months of the year has been improving, as demonstrated by: From May to the present, each month's index of industrial production is higher than the previous month, and each quarter is higher than the previous quarter. The industrial production index for the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 4.3% during the same period. Looking back at the nine-month data, it is evident that the third-quarter growth rate in several industries achieved very positive results, increasing by more than 10 per cent over the same period, including the production of beds, cabinets, tables, and chairs, metals, textiles, chemicals, tobacco, and rubber.

In addition, it is a very positive development that several of Vietnam's most important export industries have recovered quite well, including the textile industry, garment industry, electronic product manufacturing industry, and wood processing industry...

However, the Director of the Department of Industry and Construction Statistics acknowledged candidly that certain industries, such as the automobile manufacturing and motorcycle manufacturing industries, continue to face challenges. In recent years, these two industries have faced a shrinking market and competition from imports, resulting in a decline in production.

Locally, 52 of 63 localities saw an increase in the industrial production index during the same period. In the second quarter, there were only 42 of these locations. Some of the country's major industrial centres, such as Bac Giang, Hai Phong, etc., continue to experience robust growth.

"Industrial production activities have many positive points and good signals from businesses (production volume, orders, export orders) all increased in the third quarter, along with the determination of the Government and the determination of localities, we believe that industrial production in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 will continue to prosper compared to the first 9 months of the year" - the Director of the Department of Industry and Statistics Develop opinions.

Concerning the investigation of production and business trends in the processing and manufacturing industry, Director of Department Phi Thi Huong Nga analysed: According to Survey results from the General Statistics Office, in the third quarter, 30.1% of businesses rated their operations as better, 37.5% as stable, and 32.5% as having more difficulties. According to the General Statistics Office, business forecasts for the fourth quarter are considerably more optimistic than for the preceding quarters. Specifically, 39.1% of businesses said it was better, while the percentage of businesses who said it was more difficult dropped from 32.4% to 23.2%.

Observing the comments of processing and manufacturing companies from the beginning of the year to the present, the proportion of companies rating production and business activities as more difficult than in the previous quarter has significantly improved and is decreasing. This is consistent with the results provided by the Bureau of Labour Statistics.

Nevertheless, we must also acknowledge that while some industries have recovered positively (textiles, rubber, metal production, etc.) or have shown positive signs (electronic components, garments, etc.), others are still experiencing difficulties (manufacturing automobiles - motorcycles, leather - footwear). During the first nine months of the year, the automobile and motorcycle manufacturing industry not only failed to recover but also declined significantly. Observational data from the General Statistics Office indicates that 23.7% of businesses anticipate the fourth quarter of 2023 to be more challenging, particularly in the leather-shoe and automobile motorcycle manufacturing industries.

Ha Linh