Economic expert Võ Trí Thành assessed: President Donald Trump’s new trade policy will impact Vietnam

DNHN - According to Dr. Võ Trí Thành, Director of the Institute for Brand and Competitive Strategy Research, Donald Trump’s new trade policy will have significant effects on Vietnam’s economy. He also provides strategic recommendations for businesses.

Impact of Donald Trump’s trade policy on Vietnam’s economy

Donald Trump’s trade policies have triggered global disruptions, affecting not only the U.S.’s traditional trade partners such as Canada, Mexico, and China but also exerting broad influence on Vietnam’s economy. Dr. Võ Trí Thành, Director of the Institute for Brand and Competitive Strategy Research, emphasizes the need for Vietnam to closely monitor and assess these impacts, especially in light of rapidly shifting and unpredictable international developments.  

Donald Trump’s tariff strategy has enabled some countries, including Vietnam, to benefit from supply chain shifts. Specifically, the U.S.-China trade war has prompted many manufacturers to relocate from China to countries like Vietnam, where the production environment is considered more favorable and exempt from the high tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. This shift has helped Vietnam achieve the third-largest trade surplus with the U.S., following only China and Mexico.  

Speaking with Business and Integration Magazine, Dr. Võ Trí Thành warns that Donald Trump returned to the White House, his trade policies could change, and Vietnam may no longer enjoy the same benefits as before. If U.S. tariff policies expand to target more countries, particularly Vietnam, the Vietnamese economy could face new challenges, including reduced export growth and potential impacts on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.  

High U.S. tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada will create disruptions in global supply chains. Notably, China, a key U.S. trade partner, could experience difficulties, adding pressure on emerging economies like Vietnam. The Vietnamese government must respond proactively, particularly by seeking alternative markets and encouraging investment in high-value manufacturing and export sectors.  

One of the most significant challenges for Vietnam could be shifts in FDI inflows. Foreign investment into Vietnam may slow if international investors become wary of the repercussions of Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies. Industries heavily reliant on U.S. exports or closely tied to global supply chains may face short-term declines in investment, potentially dampening Vietnam’s economic growth.  

Opportunities and response strategies for Vietnam in the new context

Despite the risks posed by U.S. trade policies, Vietnam still has opportunities to sustain and expand its economy. Dr. Võ Trí Thành highlights that Vietnam can leverage improvements in its investment environment, attract high-quality FDI, and proactively diversify export markets.

One of Vietnam’s greatest advantages is its role as a key manufacturing hub in global supply chains. By maintaining competitive labor costs, a strategic geographical position, and investor-friendly policies, Vietnam can continue to attract global businesses, particularly those seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs or diversify their production away from China.  

Additionally, Vietnam must focus on developing high-value industries, including advanced technology, smart manufacturing, and sectors that can export beyond the U.S. and China. The Vietnamese government should also engage in active trade negotiations with international partners, such as the European Union (EU), Japan, and ASEAN nations, to expand export opportunities and secure new investment channels.  

It is crucial for Vietnam to maintain a flexible strategy in response to U.S. policies, ensuring its economy does not become overly dependent on a single market. Diversifying trade and capital sources will be key to mitigating risks associated with abrupt shifts in major economies’ trade policies.  

Vietnam must also strengthen its comprehensive strategic partnerships with major economies and capitalize on free trade agreements (FTAs) it has signed, particularly those with the EU, Japan, and regional partners. These agreements will help buffer the effects of U.S. protectionist measures while fostering economic cooperation with developed markets.  

Donald Trump’s trade policies, aimed at strengthening the U.S. economy, will have far-reaching consequences for Vietnam. While tariffs and global supply chain shifts pose challenges, Vietnam can still seize opportunities to maintain stability and growth. Adopting flexible trade strategies and enhancing international cooperation will be essential for Vietnam to navigate the current period of uncertainty.

Phan Chinh