What is the outlook for exports between Vietnam and China for the final months of the year?

DNHN - Just now, the Ministry of Industry and Trade reported to the Prime Minister on the import and export situation of Vietnam-China goods and proposed solutions to promote stability and trade expansion.

The Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade has just released a comprehensive report on the import and export situation of goods between Vietnam and China, as well as recommendations to promote stability and growth in bilateral trade. This report is presented to the Prime Minister with a focus on the final months of 2023.

Export - Chinese imports

If China's economy remains stable, the Ministry of Industry and Trade estimates that Vietnam's export prospects to China could increase by 8 percent. As demand in the Chinese market has the potential to recover, it is anticipated that the textile and apparel industries, as well as producers of electronic goods such as computers and mobile phones, will enjoy a bright outlook.

However, the Ministry of Industry and Trade also noted that China may apply Order 259 on third-party inspection for the textile and garment industry, requiring Vietnamese businesses to comply with strict regulations. This poses a future challenge for export businesses.

As demand begins to recover, the rate of decline in imports from China is anticipated to gradually slow, particularly for input materials. However, the cement and clinker industry faces significant obstacles due to a severe imbalance between supply and demand and continuous price fluctuations. The application of Order 259 to cement products by China has hampered exports to this market.

seafood business

Catfish accounts for a significant portion of seafood exports to China; however, this industry is projected to decline by up to 54% in 2022. Although Vietnam still maintains its position as a major supplier of catfish to the Chinese market, the diversification of China's supply sources is exerting pressure on Vietnamese export companies.

Shrimp products make up a significant portion of China's seafood trade, but they face stiff competition from markets such as Ecuador, India, and Argentina. Vietnam's prawn exports to China are anticipated to recover in the second half of 2023, albeit at a slower rate due to price competition.

Cassava and vegetable products

Vietnam and Thailand are China's principal suppliers of cassava starch, but export volume has decreased by 51%. With increased import prices and sustained consumption demand, it is anticipated that Vietnam's cassava export prospects will improve in the second half of this year, particularly in the food and paper manufacturing industries.

It is anticipated that the export turnover of fruits and vegetables, particularly durian, watermelon, and frozen fruit, will continue to rise by 121.9%. As China increases domestic production, dragon fruit and mango exports will likely decline.

Rubber sector

China is Vietnam's largest rubber import market, and the outlook for rubber exports from Vietnam in the final six months of 2023 is positive, with the possibility of rubber price increases.

The report of the Ministry of Industry and Trade examined significant facets of Vietnam-China trade and made recommendations to ensure the stability and expansion of this trade in light of global fluctuations. In the final months of this year, Vietnam will need flexibility and originality to respond to challenges and opportunities.

To promote exports, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has stated that it will effectively promote bilateral cooperation mechanisms to capitalize on opportunities to expand trade cooperation and resolve issues that arise in bilateral trade. Increase the exploitation and expansion of opportunities for cooperation with Chinese markets through the "regional access" strategy.

Nguyen Anh