Rice exports and unpredictable factors in the second half of 2024

DNHN - Vietnam is a leading country in rice production and export but is currently facing many challenges in the rice industry in the last months of 2024.

According to preliminary data from the General Department of Customs, in the first half of July 2024, Vietnam exported 290,035 tons of rice, equivalent to 177 million USD, marking a 15% increase in volume and a 30% increase in value compared to the same period last year. It is expected that rice exports in the first seven months of 2024 will reach approximately 5.26 million tons, with a turnover of 3.34 billion USD.

Mr. Nguyen Van Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association, stated that efforts to improve quality and diversify products have helped Vietnam maintain its leading position in the global rice export industry. Based on the success of the first half of the year, businesses and experts predict that Vietnamese rice exports will continue to grow strongly in the second half of 2024, possibly exceeding the target and bringing in more than 5 billion USD.

Meanwhile, according to the Vietnam Food Association's forecast, global rice production for the 2023-2024 crop year will reach nearly 518 million tons, while consumption is expected to reach 525 million tons, leading to a shortage of about 7 million tons of rice. This shortage opens up significant opportunities for rice-exporting countries, including Vietnam. Additionally, major markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Cambodia will also see a decline in rice production due to the impact of the El Niño phenomenon and climate change.

Regarding this issue, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, has advised Vietnamese rice exporting businesses to proactively prepare for all possible scenarios. One of the key factors is maintaining the consistency in rice quality across shipments while avoiding unhealthy competition practices that could lead to product price depreciation. Such phenomena not only affect a single business but can also have a negative impact on the entire rice export industry.

To cope with market fluctuations in 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has developed flexible strategic solutions suitable for various scenarios. The Ministry also collaborates with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to negotiate and expand export markets, exploiting opportunities in new and potential markets to enhance the competitiveness of Vietnam's rice industry.

In the context of the fluctuating global market with unpredictable factors, Vietnam's rice export industry is facing many challenges. Firstly, world prices are fluctuating due to the impact of various factors such as weather, trade policies, and market volatility. Intense competition from other rice-producing countries is also putting great pressure on Vietnam's rice export industry.

Secondly, climate change is becoming increasingly complex, causing natural disasters, flooding, and drought, affecting the yield and quality of rice. This threatens Vietnam's rice exports in the last months of 2024.

Thirdly, changes in policies and regulations regarding food safety, the environment, and import regulations of partner countries can also affect Vietnam's rice export capability.

Given these unpredictable factors, Vietnam's rice exports need to proactively adjust strategies, improve product quality, and seek new cooperation opportunities to cope with challenges. Flexibility in management and creativity in business will help Vietnam's rice export industry overcome difficulties to maintain a strong position in the international market.

The last months of 2024 are forecasted to be full of challenges but also contain many opportunities for Vietnam's rice export industry if it can flexibly adapt and innovate in an increasingly volatile business environment.

Phong Ha