Both the WB and ADB predict growth in various areas, including Viet Nam

DNHN - In light of the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have made growth predictions for several places, including Vietnam.

The Asian Development Outlook Report (ADO 2022) says that Vietnam's economy is set up for a strong recovery, even though the global economy is uncertain.

ADB has maintained Vietnam's 6.5 per cent growth prediction from last year. The research does, however, acknowledge that Vietnam's recovery prospects are hampered by several short-term uncertainties.

 In particular, apart from a large number of COVID-19 infections since mid-March, the stalling global economic recovery and high global oil prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war would have a direct impact on import and export activity. Inflation is influenced by Vietnam's exports and local oil prices.

Furthermore, the ADB thinks that if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, global economic development will suffer significantly. According to the ADB, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has the greatest impact on ASEAN nations' inflation rather than growth.

Growth in the ASEAN area is projected to be 5.2 per cent in 2022 and 5.3 per cent in 2023. This expansion is being fueled by strong domestic demand and good exports. Inflation is expected to reach 3.7% in 2022 and 3.1 per cent in 2023.

The World Bank (WB) is another organization that just put out a study about how the economies of Vietnam and other countries in the area will grow.

The World Economic Situation Update Report and certain areas recently issued by the World Bank (WB), the COVID-19 storm, as well as the war between Russia and Ukraine, have harmed the global economy. the global economy as a whole, and the East Asia-Pacific area in particular.

According to the paper, the shock of tensions in Ukraine, which happened at a time when the pandemic was not finished, interrupted the worldwide supply of commodities, raised financial stress, and lowered global growth. In response to these circumstances, the World Bank reduced its economic growth prediction for the East Asia-Pacific area in 2022 from 5.4 per cent to 5 per cent.

If the global economy keeps getting worse and many countries' policies don't work, the East Asia-Pacific region's growth could drop to 4%.

However, the World Bank said that these disruptions can not overpower the new development path of trade and innovation. Reforms in fiscal policy, financial security, trade, and new ideas could help East Asian-Pacific countries reduce risks and take advantage of new opportunities. 

According to forecasts, the Chinese economy will rise by 5%, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam will increase by 5% to 6%, while Thailand's GDP will grow by just 2.9 per cent.

Vietnam's estimate has been reduced from 6.5 per cent to 5.3 per cent. One of the causes of the slowdown is that Vietnam's primary trading partners are slowing down, as well as a trade exchange rate shock and sanctions due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

The World Bank also tracks the economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war and projects growth for these two nations in 2022.

Ukraine's economy will be severely impacted, with economic growth estimated to fall by 45.1 per cent in 2022. Furthermore, Russia is facing unprecedented economic sanctions imposed by the US and its Western allies, with the World Bank predicting an 11.2 per cent drop in growth.

The World Bank also provided a worst-case scenario, predicting that if the violence continues, additional sanctions would be imposed and commodity prices would skyrocket. In such a situation, Russia's GDP is expected to plummet by 20%, while Ukraine's would collapse by 75%.

Furthermore, the World Bank predicts that developing markets in Europe and Central Asia will decrease by 4.1 per cent in 2022.

Minh Thu