According to UOB Bank, Vietnam's GDP would expand at a 6.5% rate in 2022

DNHN - According to UOB, Vietnam's full-year 2022 growth rate could reach 6.5 percent, in line with the Government's aim of 6-6.5%.

Vietnam's economic growth forecast for the first quarter of 2022, released by UOB on April 6, indicates that the country's growth prospects in 2022 will be largely influenced by developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the momentum of rising energy commodity prices. 

UOB maintained its prediction for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2022 at 6.5 percent, owing to the country's solid recovery. 

According to the report, Vietnam's real GDP in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 5.03% over the same period last year. This increase was supported by good performance from the manufacturing sector, while the service sector gradually recovered as the Government eased Covid-19 restrictions. 

Among the main drivers in the first quarter of 2022, the manufacturing sector continued to lead, with an increase of 7.8% compared to an increase of 8.9% in the same period of 2021. Meanwhile, services in general increased by 4.58%, improved from 3.62% in the first quarter of 2021; however, performance varies significantly among industry sectors.

Foreign trade continued to perform well. Compared with the high growth rate in 2021, exports continued to increase by 14.8% in March 2022 year-on-year to 34.06 billion USD, while imports increased by 14.6% to 32.67 billion USD, trade surplus of 1.39 billion USD. 

Generally in the first quarter of 2022, exports increased 12.9% year-on-year to $88.58 billion, while imports increased 15.9% to $87.77 billion, creating a trade surplus of $809 million. USD in the first quarter of 2022.

According to UOB, Vietnam's growth can reach 6.5% in 2022, meeting the Government's aim of 6-6.5%.

Along with rising inflationary pressures, UOB expects the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) would maintain an appropriate interest rate policy to aid recovery efforts, particularly in light of the economic turbulence caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Accordingly, the refinancing rate is predicted to be 4% and the rediscount rate is expected to be 2.5 percent.

Bich Ngoc