Real estate credit recovers slower than expected

DNHN - Real estate credit is recovering slowly but is expected to grow rapidly thanks to low interest rates and more favorable supply. However, high house prices and low liquidity remain major challenges for buyers and investors.

In the context of the real estate and construction market gradually recovering, real estate credit also shows signs of growth. However, the recovery rate is still slow, mainly due to supply difficulties and the rise in real estate prices in recent times.

According to analysts from VCBS Securities Company, it is forecasted that real estate credit will grow rapidly in the near future, especially when the housing supply becomes more favorable, and projects are implemented more vigorously thanks to supportive policies regarding interest rates and legal frameworks.

One of the key factors driving real estate credit is the low lending interest rates. Major banks such as Agribank, BIDV, VietinBank, and Vietcombank have announced many attractive interest rate packages to attract home loan customers. Specifically, Agribank offers fixed rates from only 6% in the first 6 months, BIDV applies an interest rate of only 5% for customers in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in the first 6 months. Similarly, Vietcombank also offers home loan interest rate packages starting from 5.5% in the first 6 months.

Joint-stock commercial banks such as VPBank and TPBank have also introduced incentive packages with lower interest rates, ranging from 4.6% to 9.8%, creating favorable conditions for people to borrow money to buy homes. This opens up opportunities for many people with needs for stable housing.

Although low interest rates are encouraging buyers, in reality, the demand for home purchases has not recovered as expected. Part of the reason comes from the sharp rise in housing prices, especially in central areas, making many people hesitant to invest. According to the report, in the first half of this year, real estate business credit increased by more than 10%, but consumer home loan credit only increased by more than 1%. This shows a clear differentiation in market demand.

One of the serious issues currently is that house prices in Vietnam are at a high level, about 4-5 times the recommended income ratio. Even though loan interest rates have decreased, house prices still show no signs of cooling down, making it difficult for many people to achieve their "dream of owning a home." Additionally, the excessively high property valuations affect the market's liquidity. Buyers not only face difficulties in quick investments but also face the risk of low capital recovery.

Real estate rental prices are also not favorable, accounting for only about 3% of the total investment value, lower than bank deposit interest rates. This causes the current cash flow to shift into bank savings instead of real estate investment.

To address these challenges, experts from VPBankS are hoping for policies to moderate house prices in line with people's incomes. Specifically, the 120 trillion VND credit package for social housing loans will play an important role in helping people have the opportunity to own homes. These policies not only help grow credit but also create a sustainable foundation for the real estate market.

According to experts, with support from new policies, real estate credit demand is expected to increase. Banks are also adjusting interest rates and building more flexible credit packages to meet the growing demand of the market. The development of new real estate projects will lead to an increase in supply, thereby helping to balance the market.

However, caution is still necessary in investment decisions. Investors should carefully consider before making investments, especially in the context where house prices may not cool down immediately. Moreover, the market still holds many risks, and building a sustainable investment strategy will be the key factor in future success.

Real estate and construction credit is on the path to recovery but still faces many challenges. Low interest rates are a positive signal, but high house prices and low liquidity are still making it difficult for buyers. State support policies will be the key factor in promoting sustainable growth for the market. Investors and consumers need to closely monitor these developments to make reasonable decisions, ensuring they do not miss opportunities in a market as promising as it is today.

Phan Chinh